Phoenix Multiple listing Resales

Resale Sales                             

ARMLS-reported sales for November dropped only slightly from the October sales figure with a decrease of 249 sales.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 2,030 or about 27% from November 2005.  November sales quantity is typically very similar to those for October, so this quantity is not abnormal based upon the calendar cycle.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.  In-depth Analysis

RESALE SALES

ARMLS-reported sales for November dropped only slightly from the October sales figure with a decrease of 249 sales.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 2,030 or about 27% from November 2005.  November sales quantity is typically very similar to those for October, so this quantity is not abnormal based upon the calendar cycle.  In this normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.  In-depth Analysis

Washington-Scoot over, Nevada! Arizona has ended your 19-year reign as the fastest-growing state. We were the rightful champion last year, too, only we didn’t get credit until today, when the Census Bureau released updated figures. Arizona had a population growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2006, census estimates show. It added 213,311 people, including about 32,000 immigrants and 130,000 people moving from other states. That brings the population to more than 6.1 million and makes Arizona the 16th largest state. The nation’s biggest population loser: Hurricane Katrina-ravaged Louisiana. “We’re proud to be Number 1,” said Jeanine L’Ecuyer, a spokeswoman for Gov. Janet Napolitano. But adequate roads, housing, schools and water are part of managing the growth, she said. The South was the biggest regional gainer, picking up about 500,000 people. The West added 53,000 people from other parts of the United States. The Northeast lost 375,000, and the Midwest lost 184,000.

The population in Phoenix grew by almost 155,000 from 2000 to 2005, according to a special mid-decade census.

Here are the 2006 population estimates of select Valley cities, and their increases from 2000:

•c       Phoenix: 1,475,834 residents, 12 percent increase.

•c       El Mirage: 32,061 residents, 321 percent increase.

•c       Buckeye: 25,406 residents, 199 percent increase.

•c       Surprise: 88,265 residents, 186 percent increase.

•c       Goodyear: 46,213 residents, 144 percent increase.

•c       Youngtown: 6,163 residents, 104 percent increase.

•c       Avondale: 69,356 residents, 93 percent increase.

•c       Gilbert: 173,072 residents, 57 percent increase.

Time-on-Market Analysis

                                                           Commentary

Average days-on-market is the average number of days houses that have been sold were listed.   Typically in the Phoenix market this number has been between 60 and 70 days.  The graph clearly shows this number began to fall in June 2004 as the market gained sales velocity, bottomed out about August 2005, and then has since climbed steadily.  It has now shot right past the normal range to a current all time high of 80.2 days.Source: In-depth Analysis

Market-at-a-Glance

The Market-at-a-Glance section contains an overall summary of the trends described in our detailed articles.

A recap of the current market indicators are as follows:

1.       Resale Listings

      Resale listings in November followed the October pattern of no significant change.  These two months are the first time in 18 months that there has not been a significant increase in the listing count and the first two months since January 2006 that a new monthly listing count record was not set.  The count remains abnormally high at 45,261.

 The number of resale listings fell by 2,327 in November, which is only the second monthly decline since April 2005.

 2.        Resale Sales

       Resale sales volume is down from November of last year by 2,030 (2005 was significantly inflated by speculator activity) and down 2,751 sales from November 2004 (the October 2004 figure was also inflated by speculator activity). 

 Resale sales volume is down 373 from November 2003.  

 Resale sales volume is down 45 from November 2002.  This month is only the second time that the sales level has dropped below the 2002 level for the same month (this is one of the two numbers that has the most significance in this entire report).

 3.        Resale Sales Price

      The median sales price remained constant at $250,000 keeping it in line with June 2005.  The appreciation rate for the last fourteen months is a negative 3.3% on an annualized basis.

Provided by : InDepth Analysis

                                                 A Two Year Perspective

         The graph below  focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

  <IMG src=”/images/56531-49482/two_year_perspective.jpg”>

Almost 1 million Arizonans — including 231,000 children — do not have health insurance, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only Texas, Nevada, Montana, Oklahoma, Florida, New Mexico and Colorado had a higher percentage of their children without health care than Arizona.

Gov. Janet Napolitano is expected to focus on early education, children’s health care and better linking universities to public schools and work force needs in her upcoming budget.

The Census numbers also showed that Arizona ranked 38th among states for per capita income.   

The Business Journal of Phoenix

                                                       Resale Pricing Analysis

The Median Price in the recently-released October ARMLS resale sales reports is $250,000 which is an increase of $100 since the September reports.  The Average Price also increased this month, from $324,400 to $331,200.  The graph below displays both the monthly Average Price and Median Price of resale homes sold in MLS from January 2002 through October 2006.
 

The average price is calculated by dividing the sum of the sales prices by the number of homes sold.  The median price is determined by finding the price where the quantity of homes sold for less than that price is equal to the quantity of homes sold for more than that price.  The median is a better indicator of the overall market.  Note the similar pattern of both measures. Source: In-depth Analysis